FORME (NASDAQ: TRNR) is Sporting an Attractive Entry after Recent IPO
FORME (aka Interactive Strength Inc.) recently listed on NASDAQ under the ticker $TRNR a month ago. In a nutshell, FORME is a digital fitness platform that connects people to trainers through their proprietary hardware “fitness mirror”. Like most IPOs from the last year, share price tumbled over the first two weeks and it is currently trading at $5.80, down from an initial offering price of $8 for a >35% discount.
TRNR share price has already witnessed its fair share of ups and downs over the past month, After bottoming out at $3.21 on May 12th (some two weeks after the IPO), it surged last week on the heels of increased volume and solid PR flow that included a deal for their fitness solution to be integrated into a global lifestyle brand company’s hotels, as well as the announcement that its officially listed on Webull, thereby significantly broadening access to retail investors. It looks like the market, and investor demand, is begining to percolate behind this NASDAQ newbie. Share price peaked above $7 on May 19th, followed by a pullback to its current $5.80.
Despite this degree of volatility, TRNR has proven the ability to dust itself off from a post-IPO slump to rapidly regain lost ground towards its opening price of $8. The recent PR stream that seems to indicate robust deal flow provinces a fundamental basis for a fair share of optimism moving forward. Given the differential between current share price and its initial offering, here’s why I think TRNR will be a solid intermediate-term bounce-back play with long-term growth potential:
Its been a rough year for IPOs on the US market, and when viewed comparatively TRNR’s losses to date fall in the middle of the pack. According to https://stockanalysis.com/ipos/2023/, the number of IPOs in 2023 is down 43% from the same time last year, and of those new listees 31/63 are in the red. If we take out some of the sketchy Chinese tickers that are miraculously posting triple digit gains, then its about a 50/50 break. I plotted the whole data set, and TRNR is the bar highlighted in red–see below:
The key takeaway here is that I see TRNR’s 35% slide more as an short/intermediate term opportunity rather than a liability. Call me crazy, but the market has been bearish via-a-vis recent IPOs, and a turn around in investor confidence will translate into a recovery–at least partial–in share price. Meanwhile an entry price of <$6 is looking attractive to establish a starter position that won’t break the bank and that has a reasonable-to-high chance of at least partial recovery.
The connected fitness/wellness market is on fire and TRNR stands to benefit from this macro consumer trend with increasing global traction. TRNR is somewhat of a hybrid in that it offers both a digital service (connecting trainees to trainers) and a hardware product (fitness mirror), thereby placing this company under the broader umbrella of the global wellness market.
McKinsey values the global wellness market at $1.5T, and cites a number of trends driving it that TRNR directly responds to, like personalization, digitalization, the rise of fitness-as-a-service, and the blurring of traditional barriers between different market segments in the broader wellness space. Furthermore, the shock COVID exerted on the traditional gym/wellness club industry has meant greater demand for DIY/connected wellness and fitness solutions, funneling users and capital to providers like FORME. I won’t bore you with more specific market values or CAGR forecasts, but the bottom line is that players like TRNR that are able to capitalize on this fast evolving landscape stand to gain, motivating my opinion that share price is in for at least a partial recovery.
TRNR’s business model leverages recurring revenues and digitalization for efficient scalability/commercialization. By offering both at-home gym hardware that is supported by personalized training, TRNR enjoys lower distribution costs than in-situ gyms, labor capacity utilization, and labor market arbitrage through its globalized network of trainers. This will help facilitate a greener bottom line given successful commercialization on scale.
To this point, TRNR’s combination of smart home gym hardware and remote personal training combines two generally separate market segments that can be efficiently scaled and translated into recurring revenues. Pair that he fact that their product development is complete and management’s current focus rests on commercialization is an encouraging sign that over coming quarters revenue will start flowing and will be undergirded by a solid profit margin given the above-noted scalability factor. It will be a few months until we see updated 2023 financials but the business model TRNR has embraced looks like a recipe for recurring income and a fat profit margin, pending continued user acquisition, thereby making this another reason why I’m bullish on SP getting a boost on an intermediate time horizon.
To wrap things up, TRNR took a 37% tumble after its IPO a month ago, and now that share price is on the rise again I’m banking on at ongoing recovery towards its initial offering of $8 over an intermediate time horizon.
This optimism is motivated by:
1) The pretty abysmal performance of 2023 IPOs YTD, meaning TRNR’s losses aren’t too special given performance across the market as a whole,
2) Connected wellness and at-home/DIY fitness is trending hard globally and TRNR is hitting multiples verticals likes digitalization, home equipment, and fitness-as-a-service that should help distinguish it from more monochromatic competitors and drive user acquisition, and
3) A business model that is defined by recurring revenues and a current emphasis on commercialization that should drive revenue growth at least through 2023.
Disclosure: This is not investment or financial advice and represents the personal opinion of the author.
