Why Current Geopolitical Tensions are Bullish for Cyber Security
Geopolitical tensions between major world powers, such as the United States, China, and Russia, have been on the rise in recent years. These tensions have extended into the realm of cyber warfare, with several countries using advanced cyber attacks to achieve their political goals. As offensive techniques become ever more sophisticated, cyber protection for governmental/military, civilian, and critical infrastructure assets is becoming a strategic must for actors worldwide. In response to this reality, the US released a National Cybersecurity Strategy in March that identifies two major objectives: 1) rebalance the responsibility to defend cyberspace, and 2) realign incentives to favor long-term investments. This language speaks to a shift in policy that will prioritize long-term strategic investments in cyber security innovation. Lets explore some of the events that have motivated this new strategy, and how investors can benefit from it.
Geopolitical Catalysts in Play
Looking to recent events provides a number of clear catalysts for more intensive governmental support for cyber security investment. The Ukraine War is a prime example of how a state actor can use cyber warfare to disrupt and disable its enemy’s critical infrastructure. Russia’s use of cyber attacks against Ukrainian government entities and critical infrastructure has been well-documented, and it highlights the need for advanced cyber security solutions in both the public and private sectors.
The escalating tensions in the Taiwan Straits are another example of how geopolitical factors can lead to cyber attacks. China has been accused of launching cyber attacks against Taiwan, with the goal of stealing sensitive information and disrupting its infrastructure. As tensions continue to rise between the two countries, the demand for advanced cyber security solutions is likely to increase in APAC and beyond
Turning an eye to the Middle East, Iran’s use of cyber warfare as an asymmetric tactic is yet another example of how geopolitical tensions can lead to cyber attacks. The country has been accused of launching cyber attacks against several countries, including the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. These attacks have targeted everything from government agencies to water purification infrastructure, highlighting the need for advanced cyber security solutions.
Bull Thesis for Cybersecurity Investments
Given these geopolitical factors, it’s no surprise that the demand for advanced cyber security solutions and confidential computing providers is on the rise. From an investment perspective, these factors make cyber security companies a long-term bullish play. As nations continue to engage in cyber warfare, the need for advanced cyber security solutions will only grow, making this an exciting area for investors to watch.
One cyber security/confidential computing player to keep an eye on for hyper-growth potential is HUB Security (NASDAQ: HUBC). HUBC listed on NASDAQ in March vis SPAC after having previously traded in Israel’s TASE. As their website makes clear, HUB was founded by veterans of notorious Israeli cyber intelligence units, and its claim to provide military-grade tech should not be taken lightly. They already count the Pentagon, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin as current clients, yet the addition of a former DoD official— John C. Rogers — to its Advisory Board signals that the company is pursuing additional deals within the US defense industry.
From an investment perspective, one of HUBC’s benefits is the potential for triple-digit long-term gains. Notwithstanding a $1.28bn valuation, HUBC’s listing on NASDAQ brought share price to a fraction of its fair value due to market jitters, naked shorting, and a volatile macroeconomic backdrop. What this translates into for potential investors is an attractive entry point for a company still working to establish its footing in the US. Over the first month of trading on NASDAQ, HUBC was one of the highest-volume stocks on the market, pointing to robust demand notwithstanding a slide in share price.
In sum, both domestic and global demand for cyber security is forecast to continue increasing through end-decade. This reinvigorated approach to cyber protection will open a cornucopia of new investment opportunities globally, and HUBC is strategically positioned to become a blue-chip pick for both civilian and military-grade data and cyber protection. The fact that it is positioned in the niche of confidential computing, i.e. the use of zero-trust techniques to protect data in transit, adds to HUBC’s long-term value proposition. I’ve stuck this smallcap onto my cyber portfolio at its current entry price of ~$1.30, to join the ranks of other staples like $CYBR $PANW $INTC $RDWR $CHKP. Meanwhile I look forward to seeing this dynamic new confidential computing disruptor find its sea legs and start recovering ground to realize its $1.28bn initial valuation.
Disclaimer: this is not investment of financial advice but rather the personal views of the author.